Will the Stock Market Crash in 2024? 7 Risk Factors

Early August turmoil shows how easy it is for stock market jitters to snowball among investors.

8月初的动荡表明，投资者对股市的恐慌很容易滚雪球。

Aug. 12, 2024, at 4:03

8月5日至8月6日的24小时对股市投资者来说是一场旋风，他们可能没有为这段动荡的旅程讨价还价。

After a week of buildup, the market reacted adversely to worries over a U.S. recession and angst over the Bank of Japan boosting interest rates at a time when investors were borrowing the yen on the cheap to buy higher-risk stocks and derivatives.

经过一周的积累，市场对美国股市的担忧做出了不利反应。在投资者廉价借入日元购买高风险股票和衍生品之际，美国经济衰退和对日本央行加息的担忧。

During those 24 hours, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index lost 12% and gained back 10%, while the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 1,030 points and gained back 550 points in highly chaotic trading action.

在这24小时内，日本基准日经225指数下跌12%，反弹10%，而美国道琼斯工业平均指数在高度混乱的交易中下跌1030多点，反弹550点。

The sequence proved that, once again, stock market investing is fraught with risk and that talk of a market collapse isn't hyperbole.

这一序列再次证明，股市投资充满了风险，市场崩溃的说法并不夸张。

"We're seeing the market's emotional side right now," says Aaron Sherman, president of Odyssey Group Wealth Advisors in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. "As much as the market may seem to be driven by pure numbers, dollars and cents, rational explanations of market activity rarely tell the whole story."

宾夕法尼亚州兰开斯特奥德赛集团财富顾问公司总裁Aaron Sherman表示：“我们现在看到了市场情绪化的一面。”。“尽管市场似乎是由纯粹的数字、美元和美分驱动的，但对市场活动的理性解释很少能说明全部情况。”

Sherman says investors are seeing market psychology shift abruptly from "it's all good" to "the sky is falling" without much justification this week. "Yes, there are signs the economy is slowing, but it's not falling off a cliff," he says.

宾夕法尼亚州兰开斯特奥德赛集团财富顾问公司总裁Aaron Sherman表示：“我们现在看到了市场情绪化的一面。”。“尽管市场似乎是由纯粹的数字、美元和美分驱动的，但对市场活动的理性解释很少能说明全部情况。”

That's the good news, as the U.S. economy and the stock market aren't out of the woods yet. Keep an eye on these seven "market crash" factors that can send stocks tumbling again at a moment's notice:

这是个好消息，因为美国经济和股市还没有走出困境。请留意这七个“市场崩盘”因素，它们可能会在一瞬间再次导致股市暴跌：

The job market.

The Federal Reserve.

Growth expectations vs. risks.

Volatility scares.

Stubborn inflation.

Investor sentiment.

Negative economic data.

The Job Market

Among the other economic issues impacting stocks these days, the U.S. labor market stands out with flashing yellow lights.

在这些天影响股市的其他经济问题中，美国劳动力市场以闪烁的黄灯脱颖而出。

"July's employment report was the first signal in a long time that our thus-far resilient economy may be on slightly shakier ground than economists predicted," says Clemens Kownatzki, professor of finance at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School.

佩珀代因格拉齐亚迪奥商学院金融学教授Clemens Kownatzki表示：“7月份的就业报告是很长一段时间以来的第一个信号，表明我们迄今为止具有弹性的经济可能比经济学家预测的更不稳定。”。

That concept isn't complicated when people are less certain about their jobs, household finances and ability to afford purchases.

当人们对自己的工作、家庭财务和购买能力不太确定时，这个概念并不复杂。

The Federal Reserve

The recent market downswing was largely due to the flood of weak economic data in early August. Some investors expected stagnant labor and consumer sentiment numbers to sway the recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decision to hold off on rate cuts.

最近的市场下跌主要是由于8月初大量疲软的经济数据。一些投资者预计，停滞的劳动力和消费者信心数据将影响美联储公开市场委员会最近推迟降息的决定。

"It's hard to argue with that," says Eric Leve, chief investment officer at Bailard in San Mateo, California. "If you take the Fed at its word, you should be further convinced by its shift from 'highly attentive to inflation risks' in June to 'attentive to both sides of its dual mandate' at last week's meeting."

加利福尼亚州圣马特奥市Bailard的首席投资官Eric Leve表示：“这很难反驳。”。“如果你相信美联储的话，你应该进一步相信，在上周的会议上，美联储从6月份的‘高度关注通胀风险’转变为‘关注其双重任务的双方’。”

Leve says the Fed's interest rate policy, as measured by real rates, is very restrictive right now. He also notes that if the Fed's concern is full employment, the rationale for lowering rates becomes ever clearer. "The market is now pricing in two rate cuts for the Fed's September meeting," Leve says. "This seems reasonable and would probably signal less anxiety on the Fed's part than doing a rare mid-meeting rate cut." In the meantime, Leve notes that taking "a little froth" off the market isn't terrible. "It may set the market up for a stronger post-election rally," he adds.

Leve表示，以实际利率衡量，美联储的利率政策目前非常严格。他还指出，如果美联储关注的是充分就业，那么降低利率的理由就会变得更加清晰。Leve表示：“市场现在正在为美联储9月会议的两次降息定价。”。“这似乎是合理的，与罕见的会议中期降息相比，这可能表明美联储的焦虑程度较低。”与此同时，Leve指出，从市场上消除“一点泡沫”并不可怕。他补充道：“这可能会为选举后更强劲的反弹奠定市场基础。”。

For example, a recent catalyst for negative stock market performance was a disappointing July jobs report. "America was still adding jobs, but below expectations," Foerster explains. "The unemployment rate also rose, and investors seemed to have switched focus from inflation to jobs. The fear is that this may signify a weakening economy and lower, or possibly negative, GDP growth in the coming months or quarters."

例如，最近股市表现不佳的一个催化剂是令人失望的7月份就业报告。Foerster解释说：“美国仍在增加就业机会，但低于预期。”。“失业率也上升了，投资者似乎已经将注意力从通货膨胀转向了就业。人们担心，这可能意味着经济疲软，未来几个月或几个季度的GDP增长将下降，甚至可能出现负增长。”

Volatility Scares

A major measure of overall market risk is the CBOE Volatility Index, which pegs the stock market's 30-day volatility expectations. The VIX rose alarmingly to 65 on Aug. 5 as stocks were tanking. That's a 180% boost, representing the highest one-day rise in the index ever. The VIX did fall to 38 by the day's end, but the choppiness put a fright into even the most experienced market traders.

That makes the VIX a gauge worth tracking if you're worried about market stability.

衡量整体市场风险的一个主要指标是芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数，该指数与股市30天的波动预期挂钩。8月5日，随着股市暴跌，VIX指数惊人地升至65点。这是180%的涨幅，是该指数有史以来最高的单日涨幅。VIX在当天结束时确实跌至38，但这种波动性甚至让最有经验的市场交易员也感到害怕。

如果你担心市场稳定，VIX指数是一个值得追踪的指标。

"The VIX reflects investors' expectation of market volatility," Foerster says. "Its average level is around 20 times, and as recently as early July, the VIX was at a very low level of around 12. As the VIX rose on Aug. 5, it combined weaker growth expectations with higher risk. So it's no surprise that stock markets saw a substantial downward price movement."

Foerster表示：“波动率指数反映了投资者对市场波动的预期。”。“其平均水平约为20倍，就在7月初，VIX还处于非常低的水平，约为12倍。随着8月5日VIX指数的上涨，增长预期减弱与风险增加相结合。因此，股市价格大幅下跌也就不足为奇了。"

Stubborn Inflation

Higher inflation is a major focus because it drives the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.

"This will still be important to watch at the next report, and a low print will likely point toward a Fed cut and, therefore, a market rise," says Stephen Kates, a certified financial planner and analyst at RetireGuide.com and Annuity.org.

Foerster表示：“波动率指数反映了投资者对市场波动的预期。”。“其平均水平约为20倍，就在7月初，VIX还处于非常低的水平，约为12倍。随着8月5日VIX指数的上涨，增长预期减弱与风险增加相结合。因此，股市价格大幅下跌也就不足为奇了。"

Investors are looking for any indication that the economy is stalling and nudging the Fed to cut rates. "Lower rates will ease borrowing costs and lower mortgage rates, both of which will unlock more spending and investment from businesses and consumers alike," Kates notes.

投资者正在寻找任何经济停滞的迹象，并推动美联储降息。Kates指出：“较低的利率将缓解借贷成本，降低抵押贷款利率，这两者都将为企业和消费者带来更多的支出和投资。”。

For those with excess cash earning 4% to 5% on the sidelines, you'll need to plan for that money. "Rates will not be this high for much longer, and putting that money to work somewhere is an important project for the rest of 2024," Kates adds.

对于那些在场外赚取4%至5%的超额现金的人来说，你需要为这笔钱做好计划。Kates补充道：“利率在很长一段时间内都不会这么高，将这笔钱用于某个地方是2024年剩余时间的一个重要项目。”。

Investor Sentiment

There's an old saying on Wall Street that markets don't trade on the underlying economy; they trade on sentiment. "Currently, the sentiment that the U.S. economy avoided a recession has been very stretched, despite months and months of weakening and broadening data that suggest the economy is vulnerable," says Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Santa Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg Investment Management.

Klingelhofer believes the U.S. is already in a recession for low-income borrowers.

华尔街有句老话，市场不会根据基础经济进行交易；他们靠情绪交易。总部位于新墨西哥州圣达菲的Thornburg Investment Management投资联席主管Jeff Klingelhofer表示：“尽管数月来不断疲软和扩大的数据表明经济脆弱，但目前认为美国经济避免衰退的情绪非常紧张。”。

Klingelhofer认为，对于低收入借款人来说，美国已经处于衰退之中。

"The erosion in spending power and sentiment is spreading to the middle-income borrower, and it's metastasizing economy-wide," he says. "It's impossible to know, but the risk of recession is and has been high, and yet markets were ignoring the possibility."

他说：“消费能力和情绪的下降正在向中等收入借款人蔓延，并在整个经济范围内转移。”。“不可能知道，但经济衰退的风险很高，而且一直很高，但市场忽视了这种可能性。”

Negative Economic Data

The current market shakedown is complex, but the latest bumps and bruises stem largely from the downbeat July jobs report.

当前的市场动荡是复杂的，但最新的坎坷主要源于7月份悲观的就业报告。

"Add to that dreadful ISM manufacturing numbers, and now a meltdown in Japan along with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and you have all the elements of a swift correction," says Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler Investments in Paradise Valley, Arizona. "The question is whether it melts into a full-fledged bear market."

亚利桑那州天堂谷Laffer Tengler投资公司首席执行官Nancy Tengler表示：“再加上可怕的ISM制造业数字，以及现在日本的崩溃和中东的地缘政治紧张局势，你就具备了迅速调整的所有要素。”。“问题是，它是否会陷入全面的熊市。”

Tengler tilts to the positive side of the recession debate for the following reasons:

The market experiences an average correction (down 5% to 10%) every 12 months. "We were overdue," Tengler says.

Tengler倾向于经济衰退辩论的积极一面，原因如下：

市场平均每12个月经历一次回调（下跌5%至10%）。“我们早就应该这么做了，”Tengler说。

The sell-off in response to weaker job numbers and unemployment is likely an overreaction. "This metric is notoriously unreliable, with major revisions often offered after the fact," she notes.

对就业数据和失业率下降的抛售可能是一种过度反应。她指出：“众所周知，这一指标不可靠，经常在事后进行重大修订。”。

U. S. productivity numbers were much better than expected, and unit labor costs were lower than expected. "Additionally, the previous quarter was revised up and down, respectively. This is good news," Tengler adds. "With productivity improving last quarter by 2.3%, we continue to think that is the magic bullet in a slowing economic environment and higher interest rates."

美国的生产率数据远好于预期，单位劳动力成本也低于预期。Tengler补充道：“此外，上一季度分别上调和下调。这是个好消息。”。“随着上个季度生产率提高2.3%，我们仍然认为这是经济放缓和利率上升的灵丹妙药。”

Earnings, particularly in the technology realm, have been robust. "After the latest round of earnings calls, we are optimistic that AI is not a bubble, that margins are expanding at the specific company level, and that top-line growth is still healthy in the mid-single digits," Tengler says.

收益，特别是在技术领域，一直很强劲。Tengler表示：“在最新一轮财报电话会议之后，我们乐观地认为，人工智能不是泡沫，利润率在特定公司层面正在扩大，收入增长仍然保持在个位数左右。”。

Tengler says her investment team is still focusing on old-economy companies that have pivoted to digitization, cloud computing, generative AI solutions, and the suppliers of technology's versions of picks and shovels.

Tengler说，她的投资团队仍然专注于那些已经转向数字化、云计算、生成式人工智能解决方案的旧经济公司，以及技术版本的镐和铲子的供应商。

"We have remained disciplined and trimmed a host of our technology and communications services names in July," she says. "We'll be looking for an opportunity to add back to the highest-quality stocks at lower prices."

她说：“我们保持了纪律，并在7月份削减了许多技术和通信服务公司的名称。”。“我们将寻找机会，以更低的价格增加最高质量的股票。”

Tengler points to the 2022 tech swoon, where investors were able to pick off Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) at approximately $220. "At last week's closing price of $408, investors have been rewarded handsomely even though Microsoft stock is down about 15% from its highs," she says.

Tengler指出了2022年的科技热潮，投资者能够以约220美元的价格收购微软公司（MSFT）。她说：“尽管微软股价从高点下跌了约15%，但上周收盘价为408美元，投资者获得了丰厚的回报。”。

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